Rapid wind deployment is generating a growing stream of decommissioned wind turbine blades (WTBs), posing a significant waste challenge within the clean-energy transition. In this context, effective recycling is essential for achieving circular resource utilization; nevertheless, its economic feasibility remains uncertain, as it closely depends on evolving policy frameworks and technological advancements. This study assesses China’s end-of-life management by combining Weibull-based retirement scenarios with a system dynamics model that integrates economic, policy, and technology feedbacks. The study indicates the following results. (1) The cumulative WTB waste could reach 19.5 million tonnes by 2050; policy/technology progress can delay the retirement peak by 5–7 years; (2) Recycling is expected to remain economically unviable until 2026, nevertheless, policy subsidies can temporarily offset this limitation. In the long term, sustainable development requires a dynamic subsidy framework that adjusts to declining cost, increasing recycling rate, and fiscal constraints; (3) Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) and quota systems significantly increase short-term recycling rates, surpassing the base value by over 25 %, whereas technology subsidies primarily promote long-term innovation and enhance return on investment. (4) The nonlinear evolution of the system is shaped by three interlinked feedback loops: positive feedback from recycling incentives, negative feedback from policy regulation, and positive feedback from technological advancement. Overall, the findings offer quantitative evidence and policy-relevant insights to inform the development of an effective recycling framework for decommissioned WTBs. In alignment with Sustainable Development Goal 12, the study contributes to China’s low-carbon energy transition, advances circular economy objectives, and facilitates the sustainable expansion of wind energy infrastructure.